Zelensky, who in July attended the NATO summit in Vilnius, will meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose country has the second-largest Ukrainian diaspora in the world – Copyright AFP ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS
The Ukrainians said a few weeks ago that “everyone’s an expert”. They’re right. A lot of pseudo-military wisdom is piling up to go with the misery. Add to this grain shipment issues and armchair generals from afar, and you’ve got a nice mess.
Let’s start with the grain. Poland is trying to protect its grain production. Fair enough. The missing elephant in the room is demand. Grain demand is very high worldwide. It should be easy for Poland, Ukraine, and the EU to figure out a deal that covers any risk of potential losses.
Poland is also stopping arms shipments to Ukraine, with caveats in some cases. Poland is also upgrading its inventory on a large scale. That problem could possibly solve itself over time.
Ukraine is also switching to Western systems, so that’s a short-term problem which will fix itself eventually anyway. Not to be too glib about it, Ukraine doesn’t need shortages of anything right now, but there are other possible sources.
Then there’s “The West”. Do you remember those happy-go-lucky guys? You know, that collection of geniuses who never get anything wrong? That’s them.
Let’s start with the uniquely right-wing idea of “Ukraine fatigue” duly expressed by subservient media around the world. Who’s running foreign policy? The governments or some pathetic PR lobby for senile incompetent nutcases?
A pack of criminal-owned genocidal maniacs invade a country, commit every possible crime against humanity, and according to you, someone’s getting bored? Do tell. Why don’t you take your skateboards for a spin?
By the way – Poland and other countries have had direct experience of being invaded by Russia. Just think of 1956, 1968, and all those Disneyland years from 1945 to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Poland, Hungary, the Czechs, and Slovaks are unlikely to have forgotten.
On the military level, that is, the actual military level, we now have a “go east or go south” issue. The US thinks the Ukrainians should go south.
The trouble with going south is:
It will cut the Russian land bridge, but it will also give the Ukrainians hundreds of kilometres of flanks to manage on both sides of the corridor. Even allowing for the baffling level of Russian military dysfunction and almost total lack of maneuverability, that’s a tactical dead end. There’s also the little matter of managing the airspace over such a large area.
They may not have to go too far south. Maintaining and supporting a corridor, particularly a wide corridor, is also demanding. Some experts say all Ukraine has to do is get more advanced weapons in range of the Kerch bridge to cover the entire supply region for Crimea.
Heading east is definitely not the easy option. That said, the Russians are being forced to defend and their elite troops are getting truly hammered in the process. Bakhmut has turned into a grave for the VDV airborne units and Wagner previously. The Ukrainians know how to win in that region.
The net outcome of this situation is that the Ukrainians can move south to whatever degree necessary and do the meat-grinding to the east. That’s well within current capabilities and can be realistically achieved.
Then there’s the Army Tactical Missile Systems or ATACMS issue. These systems are a step up from the HIMARS and other systems. These are high-precision weapons with more range.
Ukrainian strikes using other systems have been extremely effective. The Ukrainians would be the ideal operators for a workout for the ATACMS systems, for practical operational analysis purposes. If those systems aren’t supplied, it’s just making the war longer.
Meanwhile – Media experts have been 100% wrong about this war. The cliches don’t work anymore. Everybody expected Russia to win easily. Nobody foresaw the rise of drones in their current form. Nobody expected massacres of Russian tanks and AFVs. Nobody thought trench warfare would reemerge.
Nobody thought the Russian military would be such a total failure. Nobody thought the Ukrainians would effectively destroy the Russian army.
Is that enough of a hint for you?
I therefore strongly suggest shutting up and letting the Ukrainians get on with it.